Heptalysis Whitepaper
3. Assessment Elements
- 3.6 Potential
Return – Can it produce enough return?
Before making a significant investment of time and money, one
should know the potential return should were successful. Remember
that for any investor or entrepreneur, there are other things
you could be doing with your time or money. It is important to
realistically evaluate a business opportunity to make an intelligent
allocation of your own human or resource capital.
The potential return or payback is a function of the total available
market, revenue model, pricing, profit margin and time-span. While
investment bankers analyze the information by crunching the numbers,
some other investors use instincts instead. While instincts can
many times be valuable, several key areas should be evaluated
to assess the potential return on investment.
Important to know:
How realistic are the projected returns?
How feasible is it to achieve those with proposed resources, in
a timely manner?
3.6.1.
Accurate Market Size
In developing business plan, companies of all sizes face the
challenge of determining the right size of their markets, particularly
if they are competing in new or rapidly evolving markets. Companies
have to clearly distinguish between total available and servable
markets and accurately estimate their market size. The servable
or target market represents segmentation characteristics within
the total available market.
Mistaking the total market size for the actual servable market
is one of the most common errors in business planning.
It is important to know:
Are the total available and servable markets known and accurately
estimated?
Are the sources of data or estimation methods reliable?
3.6.2.
Realistic Market Share
As a general rule, a company is better off to achieve dominance
in a smaller market, than owning a small share in a larger market.
Companies able to obtain greater than 30% market share are almost
always profitable.
At the same time it is not possible to capture 10%+ market share
without getting noticed by big players. Accordingly company’s
plan should take the potential reactions into account.
It is important to know:
What size of the market is this venture projecting to own? Is
it big enough?
Is the expected share of the market realistic and achievable?
3.6.3.
Convincing Revenue Model
A solid revenue model is the foundation for a sustainable business.
It defines the path to profit and should reflect cyclicality,
seasonality and growth.
It is important to know:
Are the existing and projected revenues clearly defined and understood?
Is the revenue model viable, scalable and acceptable to target
customers?
Is market seasonality or cyclicality an issue?
3.6.4.
Attractive Profit
The projected profit has to justify a business existence and
demonstrate enough growth potentials. That is driven by pricing
strategy, profit margin and future prospects. Ultimately profit
margin dictates the business capital requirement, time to breakeven
and positive cash-flow.
Pricing has to be set according to customer’s ROI and present
a reasonable breakeven timeframe for them. Future prospects are
constructed based on addressable and achievable markets.
It is important to know:
Is there any customer validation for unit volumes and pricing?
What length of time is required to achieve profits and then how
long after that before positive cash flow?
Would those who have the problem able to afford the solution?
Would they agree that the cost is fair?
3.6.5.
Reasonable Valuation
The way in which a business conducts its operations is an important
element to take into consideration when evaluating a company's
value. For instance, companies that are devoting significant resources
to creating a new product may have relatively weak earnings now.
But, if that new product catches on, profits could quickly rise
and the earnings may begin to soar. Meanwhile, companies that
have great earnings now, but are not investing in innovation and/or
new products to ensure their continued success, may have significant
problems in the future.
It is important to know:
Is the anticipated valuation realistic and up to market standards?
What are the goodwill or intangible assets of the company?
Does it reflect the existing intrinsic value and justify the risk?
3.6.6.
Predictable Dilution
Raising capital in multiple rounds has two major benefits when
planed properly: managing dilution for existing shareholders and
mitigating investment risk. Measures such as anti-dilution clauses
and focus on value creation can improve the predictability and
mitigate dilution risk.
It is important to know:
Is there any future capitalization planned?
What IRR (based on realistic valuation) is forecasted for the
next round of investors and how does that impact this round of
shareholders?
3.6.7.
Realistic Exit Plan
Perhaps the single most important event for investors is a successful
exit. A well thought out exit plan is indispensable in the financing
process.
It is important to know:
Is there a credible exit/return plan for investors in place?
Is the company open to a range of exits (acquisition, mergers, or
IPO)?
Are there a sufficient number of likely acquirers?
Can the company exit valuation be estimated based on public companies
in similar industries?
Is the exit potential within a reasonable time frame (e.g. 3-5 years)?
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